Tulfo, Padilla, Cayetano, and Sotto Locked in Four-Way Statistical Tie for First Place in OCTA’s Early 2028 Senatorial Race Survey

Raffy Tulfo, Robin Padilla, Alan Peter Cayetano, and Vico Sotto share the first-to-fourth rank range in the 3Q 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey; Grace Poe and Loren Legarda follow, while several others remain in contention for the remaining slots in the top 12.

The Q3 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey was conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above nationwide. The survey employed probability-based sampling and has a ±3 percentage-point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.

Respondents were presented with a hypothetical list of prospective candidates and were asked the question: I have here a list of names that may run in the May 2028 elections. If the May 2028 elections will be held today, who will you likely vote for as SENATOR? You may choose up to 12 names. The exercise is hypothetical: the official filing of candidacies is still more than a year away, the final field of candidates has not been determined, and several individuals included in the survey may ultimately decide not to run.

Some individuals initially considered for inclusion in the OCTA survey were removed from the list at their request. In presenting the results, names receiving less than 1% were also excluded from the published list. These exclusions should be considered when interpreting the distribution of preferences and do not imply that the published names constitute the complete or final field of potential candidates.

The findings should not be interpreted as a forecast of the 2028 senatorial election. They provide only a snapshot of voter preferences during the September 28 to October 4, 2026 fieldwork period. Preferences may change substantially as political alignments, candidacies, campaign conditions, public issues, and voter information evolve. Rank ranges are reported because candidates with close percentages may be statistically tied within the survey’s margin of error.

Executive Summary

Results of the Q3 2026 Tugon ng Masa nationwide survey show Raffy Tulfo (47%), Robin Padilla (45%), Alan Peter Cayetano (44%), and Vico Sotto (42%) in a statistical tie at the top of the hypothetical 2028 senatorial preference list, with each sharing a rank range of first to fourth. Grace Poe and Sebastian Duterte  followed with 36%, while Loren Legarda registered 31%.

Abby Binay (29%), Mark Lapid (28%), and Francis “Chiz” Escudero (27%) formed the next group, followed by Sonny Angara and Manny Pacquiao (both 25%), Ben Tulfo (23%), and Jinggoy Estrada (22%), all of whom were positioned within or near the preliminary top 12.

Because many estimates are separated by only a few percentage points, the rankings should be interpreted using the reported rank ranges rather than as fixed placements. The results reflect preferences only at the time of the survey and should not be treated as predictions of candidacy, campaign performance, or the final election outcome.

Report Highlights

1. Four Prospective Candidates Are Statistically Tied at the Top

Raffy Tulfo registered the highest voting preference at 47%, followed by Robin Padilla (45%), Alan Peter Cayetano (44%), and Vico Sotto (42%). The four share a rank range of first to fourth, indicating that their relative order cannot be treated as statistically fixed. Grace Poe (36%), Sebastian Duterte (36%) and Loren Legarda (31%) followed, with rank ranges of fifth to sixth and fifth to ninth, respectively.

2. Several Prospective Candidates Are Competitive for the Remaining Top-12 Positions

Abby Binay received 29%, followed by Mark Lapid at 28% and Francis “Chiz” Escudero at 27%. Sonny Angara and Manny Pacquiao each registered 25%, while Ben Tulfo received 23% and Jinggoy Estrada 22%. Their overlapping rank ranges show that several prospective candidates remain competitive for positions within the preliminary top 12. Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III and Salvador “Sal” Panelo (both 20%), Mark Villar (19%), and Gringo Honasan and Francis “Tol” Tolentino (both 18%) also remained within the broad statistical range covering the last available slots. These are not definitive placements, since sampling error and future changes in the prospective candidate field may alter the rankings.

3. Compared with the Q2 2026 Survey

In the Q2 2026 TNM survey (fieldwork July 4–11, 2026), Robin Padilla led at 53.9% and Raffy Tulfo followed at 47.4%. In Q3, Tulfo’s figure is essentially unchanged at 47%, while Padilla registered 45%. Alan Peter Cayetano (45.4% to 44%) and Vico Sotto (42.0% to 42%) were also largely steady, whereas Grace Poe (44.5% to 36%), Loren Legarda (39.0% to 31%), and Manny Pacquiao (34.5% to 25%) registered lower figures. Sonny Angara (19.2% to 25%) and Francis “Chiz” Escudero (23.2% to 27%) registered higher figures. Because the list of names presented to respondents differed between rounds, quarter-on-quarter comparisons should be made with caution.

4. Results Are a Hypothetical Snapshot, Not an Election Forecast

The survey captures voter preferences under a specific hypothetical list during the September 28 to October 4, 2026 fieldwork period. Some names were removed from the list at their request, and prospective candidates receiving less than 1% were omitted from the published results. The findings therefore should not be read as a complete candidate lineup, a prediction of who will file a candidacy, or a forecast of the 2028 senatorial election.